Activity Pace
Between Jan 1, 2026 and Jul 1, 2026, total incidents decreased by 17.1% compared to the same period in 2025. However, fatalities saw a significant 61.3% increase, rising from 111 to 179, indicating a more lethal security environment despite fewer overall incidents.
Rising Risk
Homicide remains the most frequent risk, accounting for 17 of the 58 incidents recorded between Jan 1 and Jul 1, 2026. While not a new threat, its prevalence suggests a persistent and significant challenge requiring continued attention.
Severity Level
The period Jan 1 to Jul 1, 2026, shows a concerning rise in fatalities, with 179 deaths recorded compared to 111 in the prior year. This represents a 61.3% increase in lethality, highlighting that while fewer incidents occurred, those that did were more deadly.
Future Outlook
Given the substantial increase in fatalities despite a decrease in overall incidents, the security outlook suggests a near-term trend of higher lethality. This trajectory, particularly with 'Bandits' as a primary actor, indicates that ongoing threats may become more severe, demanding enhanced protective measures.